As December 2025 comes to a close, many buyers and sellers in San Francisco are already looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026. While Q4 is typically quieter due to the holidays, it often sets the stage for what’s coming next. In San Francisco, where supply is consistently limited and demand remains strong, early-year planning matters.
Understanding where the market stands now helps set realistic expectations for Q1 and positions you to move with confidence.
By late 2025, the San Francisco housing market remains defined by tight inventory and steady demand. While activity slows seasonally in December, prices have largely held firm, especially for single-family homes in established neighborhoods.
Condos and smaller units have shown more variability, with pricing and days on market differing widely by location, building quality, and HOA structure. Well-priced, move-in-ready properties continue to perform best across all segments.
Importantly, many buyers who pause during the holidays are not leaving the market. They are waiting.
Historically, Q1 brings renewed activity as buyers re-enter the market after year-end. In San Francisco, that trend is often more pronounced due to limited housing supply and ongoing job-driven demand.
Looking ahead to Q1 2026, several themes are likely:
Q1 often rewards decisiveness. Buyers who wait too long for “more options” can find themselves competing again by spring.
Mortgage rates remain a key variable going into 2026. Even modest rate changes can have a significant impact on affordability in a high-price market like San Francisco.
For buyers planning to act in Q1, preparation in December and January is critical. That includes:
Sellers also benefit when buyers are well-qualified. Strong financing reduces risk and increases the likelihood of a smooth closing.
Q1 can be an excellent time to buy if you’re ready.
The challenge is readiness. Inventory remains tight, and the best homes do not linger.
For sellers considering Q1 2026, timing and pricing matter.
A strong launch strategy often matters more than the exact week a home goes live.
Whether buying or selling, financial qualification plays a central role in today’s San Francisco market.
For buyers, lenders evaluate credit score, income stability, assets, debt, and overall loan structure. In higher-priced markets, loan strategy is just as important as approval itself. Jumbo loans, down payment planning, and long-term affordability all come into play.
Working with an experienced loan officer early helps identify potential issues, clarify options, and position buyers to compete effectively in Q1.
As the market transitions from Q4 into Q1 2026, having the right financial guidance can make the process far smoother. Clear communication, realistic planning, and early preparation are key advantages.
For personalized mortgage guidance and support, learn more about Steve Hook, an experienced loan officer who helps buyers understand their financial qualifications and prepare for competitive markets:
👉 https://www.uamco.com/loan-officer/steven-hook
December is not the end of the housing year in San Francisco. It’s the setup.
Buyers who prepare now are often best positioned to succeed in Q1. Sellers who plan ahead can take advantage of early-year demand. With limited inventory and continued interest in the market, informed decisions and strong financial preparation remain the foundation for success heading into 2026.
